A SpaceX Rocket Is Going to Slam Into the Moon

Update 2025-05-02 : New analytic thinking suggest the object that will dispatch the Moon isactually a Chinese booster shot , not a Falcon 9 second stage . Original clause seem below .

A Falcon 9 second stage has been tumbling uncontrollably in space since 2015 , but expert say its seven - year journeying is coming to an end , as the 4 - short ton rocket part is gestate to hit the Moon in a matter of weeks .

The fagged skyrocket stage is expected to tally somewhere near the lunar equator on March 4,accordingto Bill Gray , creator ofProject Pluto , a software program for tracking near - Earth object , asteroid , comet , minor planets , and other thing floating in distance . There is still some uncertainty about the exact timing and location of the collision , but the current data shows a “ certain impact , ” writes Gray .

The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket during launch on February 11, 2015.

The SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket during launch on 13 December 2024.Photo: SpaceX

The out - of - control second stage posture no threat to life or equipment and at most will produce a new lunar impact crater . The impingement is not likely to be seeable from Earth .

“ For those asking : yes , an honest-to-god Falcon 9 2d stage left in mellow reach in 2015 is going to hit the moon on March 4 . It ’s interesting , but not a prominent deal,”tweetedJonathan McDowell , an uranologist from the Harvard - Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics . He added that “ things leave behind in cislunar orbit [ orbits between the Earth and Moon ] are precarious — will eventually either run into the Moon or the Earth or get perturbed to solar orbit . ”

For those require : yes , an older Falcon 9 second level left in high orbit in 2015 is going to hit the moonlight on March 4 . It ’s interesting , but not a giving deal .

The DSCOVR spacecraft en route to its solar orbit.

The DSCOVR spacecraft en route to its solar orbit.Photo: SpaceX

— Jonathan McDowell ( @planet4589)January 25 , 2022

This special Falcon 9 rocket found from Cape Canaveral in Florida on February 11 , 2015 . The launching was notable for two cause : It was the first SpaceX launch of a U.S. research orbiter and the private company ’s first launch to interplanetary space . The commission see the successful delivery of NOAA’sDeep Space Climate Observatory , or DSCOVR , which monitor solar wind in real time from L1 , the first Lagrange point between Earth and the Sun .

DSCOVR nestled into its neutral gravitational spot some 932,000 miles ( 1.5 million klick ) from Earth , but the Falcon 9 booster stayed behind . As Ars Technicareports , the “ second stage was eminent enough that it did not have enough fuel to return to Earth ’s atmosphere ” and it “ lacked the energy to escape the gravity of the Earth - Moon system , so it has been following a somewhat chaotic eye socket ” since enrol into space in 2015 .

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The skyrocket level is tumbling , rotating about once every 180.7 seconds , or possibly once every 90.4 seconds , according to Gray ’s data . More observations are ask to confirm the booster amplifier ’s movements , as the Yarkovsky core could come into play , in which incoming sun more or less influences an object ’s movement charge per unit and thus its design time of impact .

Gray wrote on Project Pluto ’s website that the booster will strike the lunar surface at focal ratio strive 1.6 miles per 2d ( 2.58 km / s ) , but he suspects that “ the encroachment itself will have to go unobserved ” as “ the mass of the lunar month is in the path , and even if it were on the near side , the wallop come a couple of days after New Moon . ”

Interestingly , this will denounce the first clip , at least as far as I ’m aware , that a piece of place junk will accidentally reach the Moon . Our stuff has accidentally crashed onto the control surface during botched landing attempts , recent examples being the failed landing place of India’sVikram probeand Israel’sBeresheet probe , both in 2019 . And in 2009 , NASA intentionally crashed a Centaur upper stagecoach onto the Moon as part of theLunar Crater Observation and Sensing Satellite(LCROSS ) delegation .

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