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SAN FRANCISCO — Human beings have alter the Earth so much that human extinction is a real hypothesis if people continue on their current path . But if they can reckon out a mode to experience sustainably , at least some human civilizations could become quasi - immortal , one researcher says .
The challenge is to change the social mind-set to one that is long - term and accounts for humanity ’s central function in shaping the planet ’s destiny , instead of one that react to immediate crisis and think in the shortsighted term .
An artist’s illustration of a large asteroid headed for Earth.
" For our civilisation to become a new variety of entity on the planet , we require to live comfortably , over the long haulage , with human race - change technology , " David H. Grinspoon , an astrobiologist at the Library of Congress , said Dec. 12 here at the yearly meeting of the American Geophysical Union .
Not everyone agree that a long - term perspective is possible or that it will prevent Earth ’s dying . In fact , one uranologist state humans are hardwired to last in the world of the " immediate . " [ day of reckoning : 9 Real Ways Earth Could stop ]
Human geological era
For most of the last 4.5 billion years , Earth has been shaped by natural disasters , such as thedinosaur - killing asteroid , or biological force play , such as the raise of cyanobacteria that create the planet ’s O - productive standard pressure , Grinspoon said .
But in the current epoch , humans are fundamentally change the planet .
" The Earth is becoming unrecognisable from the planet it was before we became a geologic military group , " a period that some have dubbed theAnthropocene Era , Grinspoon say .
Habitat destruction , unchecked population growth , global warmingand other challenge of mod civilisation have put humanness at risk . The problem is that right now , though man have a big unwitting impingement on the planet , they do n’t consciously ensure that encroachment , he said .
Civilizational crossroads
Now , civilization is at a crossroads , Grinspoon says : If global warming and other Earth - altering phenomena keep on uncurbed , humanity could die out . But , ifHomo sapienscan overcome those challenges , the people who do survive could build a longer - lived civilization than any that thrived in the past . In substance , at a bifurcation in story , civilizations could be capped at a few thousand years or , alternatively , last for century of K — or even millions — of years .
" If even a small fraction of people come through the bifurcation in lifetime of civilisation , then they may become quasi - immortal , " he aver .
The practiced news , Grinspoon said , is that humans are now seek to shape the major planet ’s future . For instance , nations consciously took political activeness toshrink the ozone cakehole , are work to curb carbon emissions and are looking for ways to foreclose asteroids from bombarding Earth .
In the future tense , societies could learn to geoengineer their environs , foreclose future Ice Ages , or even ( in the remote futurity ) stave off Earth ’s last , when thesun balloons into a ruby-red giantand engulfs the planet in scorching passion , Grinspoon say .
cardinal histrion
In order for world to have any hope for survival , however , it must learn to harness technology sagely , Grinspoon said . Humanity must also shift from its brusk - term , regional mentality that denies homo ' impact on the Earth to a multigenerational and global outlook that consciously accepts its crucial role in Earth ’s lot . [ Big Bang to Civilization : 10 Amazing Origin Events ]
That lookout may be trouble for many people , include scientist accustom to seeing humans as inconsequent specks in the vast account of the existence , and conservationist who liken humans to vicious trespasser guilty of destroying the Earth , Grinspoon say .
But Grinspoon indicate that those views of humankind are counterproductive , because they make humanity ’s problem seem intractable .
" We are cardinal to the write up , " Grinspoon aver .
Instead , a better metaphor may be masses who somehow awoke at the helm of a very tumid bus speeding down the main road , he aver . " We have to figure out how to drive this thing to avoid the tragedy , " he said .
Civilization is facing a bottleneck , said Seth Shostak , a elderly stargazer with the SETI Institute in Mountain View , Calif.
" Eventually , you either have to stabilize the universe and reuse everything , or you have to do something else , " such as go into blank to dwell or mine for resource .
But Shostak wonder whether a more planetary , foresightful - term outlook is fair to expect .
" The mode we ’re cable is to be worried about the quick problems , " Shostak say LiveScience .
And it ’s not always potential to have a long - term perspective . For illustration , London was engulfed in a miasm of toxic smoke from ember - fire abode heating in the 1870s , and nobody could come up with a result . Then , ember - fired warming give way of life to other heat sources , and the job solved itself , he said .
" You do n’t often see what ’s decent around the nook , " Shostak suppose .
